Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will exceed wired devices by 2017, according to Cisco Systems, Inc. (see Figure 1). While desktop PC usage will grow by only 14% annually, mobile devices will grow at a much faster rate.
Figure 1: Non-PC IP traffic by consumers – 2012-2017
Source: CISCO VNI 2013
Tablet usage is predicted to grow by 104% a year, machine-to-machine (M2M) by 82% per year, and mobile phone traffic by 79% (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Internet traffic growth by device – 2012-2017 CAGR
Source: CISCO VNI 2013
Wireless + Mobile Devices to Dominate Desktop Internet Traffic
In fact the current dominance of desktop PCs over wireless devices on the Internet will flip by 2017. In 2012 59% of Internet traffic was from wired devices (desktop PCs etc.), and 41% was from wireless and mobile devices. By 2017 wireless and mobile devices will account for 55% of Internet traffic, with wired devices at 45%.
Figure 3: Internet traffic from devices – 2012-2017
Source: CISCO VNI 2013
Asia Pacific to Dominate Mobile Internet Traffic
By 2017, the Asia Pacific region will dominate global Mobile Internet traffic with nearly 2 exabytes of data and about 1/2 the global share of traffic (see Figure 4).
Figure 4: Mobile Internet traffic by Region – 2012-2017
Source: CISCO VNI 2013
Conclusion</h2
In 2013 mobile devices accounted for 15-20% of web traffic, depending on which analyst you believe. In the next 4-5 years the share of mobile and wireless traffic will nearly double. By 2017 mobile+wireless traffic will exceed desktop traffic. At these growth rates, mobile share will exceed 30-40% of all web traffic by 2016-2017. These trends show the importance of mobile-optimized websites (“responsive”) and mobile website performance.
Further Reading
- Mary Meeker is Back with her 2013 Internet Trends Report Slides
- Mobile now makes up 15% of Web traffic, up from 10% a year ago. Mary Meeker Internet Trends Report, May 29, 2013.
- Cisco’s Visual Networking Index Forecast Projects Nearly Half the World’s Population Will Be Connected to the Internet by 2017
- Global IP Traffic Predicted to Grow Three-fold from 2012 to 2017.
- Cisco’s Visual Networking Index
- Based on Cisco’s own internal data and other sources the VNI predicts Internet trends with nifty interactive apps.